If I would be a banker these days (I used to be one – for 30 years – in what is now known as Nordea Bank) I would be worried about quite a few things.
Coming from the Nordics - it would not be so much about present bottom lines and risks – it would be more about getting faster up the value chain in the payment area – before too many new players will come down (or up from the accounting domain) into the payment business.
The thing is that the combination of deregulation (PSD), new technology, networking and standardization will make it easier for new players to enter the transaction business. As many of them come with deeper knowledge of end-2-end business processes their value proposition will almost automatically be both wider and deeper.
But is is not only the payment business which can suffer. The more worrying aspect are the transaction accounts. Regulation is already allowing non-banks to provide transaction accounts (even financing up to 12 months). Technically this step is very short. And as banks well know it is the mass of balances sitting in transaction accounts are a main part of the income (in normal interest rate conditions) and do not require risk capital (as lending does)..
So – high time for starting to seriously adding value to payments.